Anabelle Colaco
11 Jun 2025

NEW YORK CITY, New York: Oil prices remained steady on June 9 as investors looked ahead to the outcome of the U.S.-China trade talks and upcoming economic data from both countries, balancing optimism over global growth with concerns about rising oil supply.

Brent crude futures were unchanged at US$66.47 a barrel at 0008 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) edged up by 1 cent to $64.59.

The talks, which began Monday, and have extended into Wednesday, have brought together three of President Donald Trump's top advisers and their Chinese counterparts. The meeting marks the launch of a new U.S.-China economic and trade consultation mechanism, announced following a rare high-level phone call between the countries' leaders last week.

Markets are watching closely as tensions between Washington and Beijing have escalated in recent weeks, especially after China's export restrictions on rare earths disrupted supply chains critical to sectors like energy, defense, and electronics.

Oil prices posted their first weekly gain in three weeks after news of the dialogue helped boost market sentiment. Analysts say a potential breakthrough could support global growth and, by extension, oil demand.

Additional support came from U.S. labor market data released last week. The May jobs report showed that unemployment remained stable, which some investors interpreted as a sign that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates to support economic momentum. Lower rates typically stimulate spending and energy use.

Meanwhile, China's inflation figures are expected to provide further clues about domestic demand in the world's largest oil importer. A rebound in Chinese consumption could offset some of the pressure from rising global supply.

That pressure comes mainly from OPEC+, the alliance of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, which announced a large July output increase during its May 31 meeting.

In a note late last week, HSBC analysts said they expect OPEC+ to speed up production increases in August and September as well. This could pose downside risks to their Brent forecast of $65 per barrel in the final quarter of 2025.

Capital Economics echoed the sentiment, noting that the "new faster pace of production rises is here to stay," potentially capping any significant rally in oil prices unless demand surprises to the upside.

For now, traders appear to be balancing hopes for stronger economic cooperation between the U.S. and China with the reality of a supply-heavy market, keeping oil in a narrow trading band ahead of more concrete signals.